Page 23 - FoodFocusThailand No.211 OCTOBER 2023

SPECIAL FOCUS

Domestic Consumption of Processed Seafood • Canned seafood: Exports expected to decrease 2.5-
Trends 3.5% per year on weak consumer spending power in the main
Domestic consumption of processed seafood is expected to trading partners, e.g., the US and Egypt. Annual output of
stay flat or slightly increase up to 0.5% per year. Sales will canned tuna is thus forecast to shrink by between -2.5% and
be boosted by rising levels of urbanization, which tends to -3.5%. Conversely, output of canned sardines should rise at
encourage consumers to favor food that is both healthy and an average annual rate of 3.5-4.5%, as cross-border trade
easy to prepare, and this will then lift purchases of processed recovers and exports to Myanmar, Lao PDR, and Cambodia
seafood since this is generally available in forms that are improve, now that pandemic controls have been loosened.
ready to cook or to eat. In addition, the growth will also add • Prepared and preserved seafood: Exports expected
to demand from restaurants, hotels and related food to decrease 1.5- 2.5% per year. Sales will be hurt by the
processing industries and analyzing by product group as increasing difficulty faced by Thai players when competing on
follows: price, which is especially affected by the inflationary effects of
• Chilled and frozen seafood: The quantity of goods the labor shortage on wages. As such, exports of prepared
distributed to the domestic market is expected to decrease and preserved shrimp products will shrink by between -1.5%
by 1.0% per year as consumers destock chilled and frozen and -2.5% per year over the next three years, though at the
seafood and turn to consuming fresh seafood at restaurants same time, annual exports of prepared and preserved fish
or buyback seafood to cook by themselves. Domestic sales products should expand by 2.0-3.0% on: growing consumer
of chilled and frozen fish are expected to decrease by 3.0% preference for fish as a healthy and nutritious food and the
to 4.0% per year. In contrast, shrimp and squid and cuttlefish development of new product lines that are easy and convenient
products, which are a small percentage of domestic to prepare and cook.
consumption, are expected to increase 8.0-9.0% per year However, Thailand's processed seafood industry still faces
and 4.5-5.5% per year, respectively. many challenges including, Uncertainty in the global
• Canned fish: The forecast is for domestic consumption economy, especially for the US and Japan, barriers to trade
to rise by 1.0-2.0% per year. Demand will grow on recovery and the imposition of international standards such as the
in purchasing power of canned tuna, which is expected to rules on IUU fishing. Additionally, the customs advantages
enjoyed by Thailand’s competitors such as agreed free trade
rise 8.5-9.5% per year because products are wide range and
Direction of Thai Seafood easy to eat. In contrast, canned sardines is expected to agreements (FTAs), due to Thailand does not have an FTA,
decrease 2.0-3.0% per year.
Processing Industry Direction of Thai Seafood Processing Industry in 2023-2025

Domestic
Output Consumption Export

-0.5 to -1.5% +0.5% -2 to -3%
per year per year per year

Exports of Processed Seafoods Trends this puts Thai goods at a relative disadvantage in the EU
Exports of processed seafoods are expected to decline at market when it comes to price. Moreover, shrinking fish
an annual rate of between 2.0% and 3.0%. These declines stocks and dangers from natural disasters effect on the
will affect different product groups as described below. reduction in the size of the maritime catch, as well as the
• Chilled and frozen seafood: A global economic development of new and alternative seafood products has
slowdown and high levels of inflation will cut consumer coincided with growing concerns among consumers with their
spending power in export markets. This is forecast to translate health and well-being, and with animal welfare.
into an annual contraction of between 2.0% and 3.0% in
overseas sales, as buyers switch to cheaper alternatives,
particularly from China and Ecuador. At the same time, Thai More Information Service Info C001
players will face increasing non-tariff barriers to trade,
especially when selling into markets in Europe and the US. เอกสารอ้างอิง / Reference
Exports of chilled and frozen seafood are thus forecast to https://www.krungsri.com/en/research/industry/industry-outlook/
contract annually by between -5.5% and -6.5% for fish food-beverage/processed-seafood/io/processed-sea
products, 0.0% and -1.0% for shrimp products, but +0.5% food-2023-2025
and +1.5% for squid and cuttlefish products.
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