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SPECIAL REPORT

overall picture, however. Owing to its strong per-capita gdp growth, base. Currently, online sales of food in general – and fresh fruit and
Asia will expect to see rapidly increasing demand for healthier food vegetables in particular – start out with a low share of the overall
products among its emerging middle classes. food retail market. There are significant regional differences, variations
As a number of producers and exporters have seen already in driven mainly by consumer sentiment and the profitability of retailers.
recent years, this will lead to a rebalancing of demand as consumers At the same time, some growers have begun to appreciate the channel
eat less of the basics, such as rice, and more fresh foods. Some of – as an example, one producer we interviewed reported growth of
these developments will be the result of higher demand in regions around 20 per cent in the online arena, compared with less than 5
that are today somewhat remote from the supply chain. This presents per cent offline. This emerging situation has the potential to develop
challenges for the present setup. For suppliers to seize this significantly, even though online fruit and vegetable sales are unlikely
opportunity, they will need to be able to serve such regions. Take, to sky-rocket in the foreseeable future. Once companies such as
for example, Africa’s urbanised areas: we expect significant growth Amazon Fresh or Ocado enter more markets, established retailers
here, but currently more than two-thirds of the population still lack will be forced to respond, since they cannot afford to lose even a
ready access to food supply. Absolute levels of fresh fruit and small portion of their traditional revenue to those online competitors.
vegetable consumption will continue to rise in North America and We expect online’s share of global fruit and vegetable sales to
Europe, but by 2030 their relative importance as a percentage share grow to 7 per cent by 2030, though distinct regional differences will
of global consumption will be in decline. In the main, this will be the remain. The bulk of this growth will occur in Europe and Asia, and
result of lower growth rates and less notable changes in nutritional only to a lesser extent from the Americas. The main drivers of growth
demand. will be a decline in delivery costs, rising competitive peer pressure
to enter the market, and a lowering of barriers to adoption. Increasing
2. Shifts between Consumption Occasions automation and improvement in logistics will result in more efficient
Over the past couple of decades, there has been dramatic movement delivery, while customers themselves are likely to be more willing to
towards out-of home consumption. This has been a big driver of purchase online thanks to last-mile innovations and more appealing
overall demand and profitability. While we expect this trend to online models.
continue, the pace of change is likely to slow. From the fresh produce
industry’s point of view, there is some welcome news to be found
within this overall picture. We expect to see fresh fruit and vegetables Special Thanks to FRUIT LOGISTICA Trend Report Part 1
play a more prominent role in the out-of home market. North America เทรนด์ล่ามาแรงจากงานแสดงสินค้า FRUIT LOGISTICA ได้รับการเปิดเผยผ่านรายงาน
is likely to remain an out-of home stronghold: not only does it have FRUIT LOGISTICA Trend Report Part 1 ซึ่งเปิดให้ผู้ที่สนใจสามารถดาวน์โหลดรายงาน
the largest market share, but it is also already supported by well- ฉบับดังกล่าวได้ที่เว็บไซต์ www.fruitlogistica.de/en/About/TrendReport2018/
established, highly consolidated restaurant chains, complemented
by fully professionalised supply chains. The new research of worldwide consumer trend on fruit and vegetables was pub-
lished exclusively by FRUIT LOGISTICA. That figure, revealed in Part 1 of the FRUIT
3. Channel Shifts LOGISTICA Trend Report 2018. To read more about future trends, download your
Over the coming decade, there will be significant growth in the use free copy here, www.fruitlogistica.de/en/About/TrendReport2018/
of online channels, albeit starting from what is today a very small

JUN 2018 FOOD FOCUS THAILAND 75