Page 55 - FoodFocusThailand No.180 March 2021

SPECIAL REPORT

1. Foods with high export share and rate of expansion, namely fresh fruits and livestock products, environmentally-friendly throughout the
particularly chicken products due to significant demand from the Chinese market (Thailand’s No.1 entire food supply chain, new CODEX
export market in the category of Thai food and beverages). standards for allergen management
• Fruits: This food category is expected to enjoy continuous growth, thanks to a broader customer throughout the food supply chain, and
network through online sales channels as well as the opening of two additional border checkpoints, China’s call for investment in lab-grown
as authorized by the Chinese government (Dongxin and Pingxiang railway border checkpoints). meat technology as a national agenda
• Livestock: Fresh, chilled and frozen chicken is expected to be supported by orders from the item in establishing food security and
Chinese market after China certified several more chicken factories in Thailand last year. As concerns solving the country’s chronic meat
regarding African Swine Fever (ASF) have gradually eased and production capacity has started to shortages.
regain traction, the necessity for importing chicken products from Thailand will likely decline and may Under the new trade context, the
see waning growth. As for prepared and preserved chicken meat, orders are expected to resume to a most urgent matter that requires food
certain extent, with Japan as the key export market as it plans to reopen the country in April 2021 and and beverage businesses to make
host the Summer Olympic Games. adjustments is the development of a
Nonetheless, several products in the livestock category attained remarkable growth in 2020, like production system and food products
fresh, chilled and frozen pork . Since the current swine influenza bears similarities to ASF which had, of the future that are uniquely innovative
3
until recently, plagued pig farms in many provinces of Thailand , the impact on domestic pork output or introduce new culinary ideas, while
4
and exports of related products in 2021 would be apparent – albeit on a limited scale – as its export accommodating consumers’ lifestyles
share remains small (or equivalent to a 2.4 percent share of livestock products exported to the global in the ‘new normal’ era with greater
market). awareness of hygiene, the environment,
2. Food products with relatively low export share yet enjoying a healthy rate of growth, such as society and good governance.
herbs and seasonings, are products with growth potential for which Thailand should quickly seek to Traceability is another important issue
expand their reach. These products meet the demands of consumers in the ‘New Normal’ era where along with compliance with
consumers prefer to dine within their households and select more health products. internationally recognized health and
Products that may limit the growth of export value are food products that have a high export share safety standards. Products with high
but may see limited growth or contraction, namely canned/prepared and preserved seafood. Given a market potential in the foreseeable
high base in 2020 due to surging demand, particularly from the US market, amid ample inventories, future include functional food, organic
these products may see static growth. Moreover, fishery products – especially shrimp – have flooded products, plant/insect-based alternative
the global market, following a plunge in demand from major supplier - HoReCa businesses (hotels/ protein products, prepared food/ready-
restaurants/cafés and catering), particularly in the US and EU markets. to-eat food, food seasonings and herbs.
Furthermore, food and beverage
Post-COVID-19 Consumption Trends Adjusting to the ‘New Normal’ Trade, exporters are advised to consistently
Focusing on Quality and Standards is a Pressing Issue monitor newly introduced trade
Regarding the post-COVID-19 consumption trends, KResearch views that consumers will prioritize regulations, as they may need to
quality and standards, especially food safety standards. Meanwhile, trade partners may utilize trade readjust their production processes to
measures (both tariff and non-tariff) to protect their industries. Examples of new regulations and policies suit the standards required by trade
introduced by major trade partners which could affect the Thai food and beverage industry going forward partners. While such change may
include the EU’s “Farm to Fork” strategy which aims to make food systems fair, healthy and initially incur management cost to
manufacturers, and could potentially
affect their profitability, it could help
Table 1 Projections of export value for Thailand’s food and beverage exports (core products) 2020-2021 generate increased opportunities, and
augment their strength and
First 10 Months of 2020 Growth Rate (%YoY) competitiveness over long-term.
Key Export Markets
Core Products Export (During the
Value % Share 10M63 2020f 2021f First 10 Months of 2020)
(USDmn)
Livestock products 3,752 18.0 11.3 8.9 3.1 Japan (39.5%) / UK (12.3%) / ข้้อมููลเพิ่่�มูเติ่มู/Additional Information
1
Cambodia (8.8%) กระทรวงเกษตรสหรัฐอเมริกา
(USDA, Nov 2020)
Fruits (fresh/chilled/ 3,618 17.2 12.6 15.1 12.6 China (70.7%) / Vietnam 2 Global Outlook On Aquaculture
frozen/dried) (10.9%) / Hong Kong (9.3%)
Leadership (GOAL) Conference
Seafood (canned/ 3,288 15.7 4.1 3.3 0.0 USA (29.0%) / Japan (ผลสำารวจจาก GAA-commissioned 2020)
prepared/preserved) (15.8%) / Australia (6.2%) 3 ในช่่วง 10 เดืือนแรกของปีี 2563 ไทย
ส่งออกสุกรสดืแช่่เย็นแช่่แข็งอย่่ท่� 90.5
Wheat products and 1,839 8.8 -2.1 -2.1 2.0 USA (18.2%) / China (10.4%) / ล้านเหร่ยญสหรัฐฯ ขยายตัวส่งถึึงร้อยละ
other food preparations Myanmar (6.4%)
492.9 (YoY)
Beverages 1,599 7.6 -6.0 -6.7 0.1 Cambodia (26.2%) / Vietnam 4 อ้างอิงข่าวจากปีระช่าช่าติธุุรกิจ เรื�อง 19
(20.6%) / Myanmar (17.1%) จังหวัดืผวาโรคระบาดืหม่ กระทุ้งรัฐแก้หวั�น
Fruits (canned/prepared/ 1,363 6.5 0.5 0.2 -2.2 USA (40.1%) / China (6.0%) / ส่ญ 2 แสนล้าน (https://www.prachachat.
preserved) Japan (5.5%) net/economy/news-566759)
1 United States Department of Agriculture
Fishery products 1,304 6.2 -13.8 -15.3 -10.5 Japan (23.5%) / China (19.4%) / (USDA, Nov. 2020)
USA (16.6%) 2 Global Outlook On Aquaculture
Leadership (GOAL) Conference
7 core products combined 16,764 80.0 3.5 3.0 2.6 China (18.4%) / Japan (14.2%) / (GAA-commissioned study, 2020)
USA (12.2%) 3 During the first 10 months of 2020,
Thailand’s exports of fresh, chilled and
Others 4,204 20.0 4.0 2.8 4.9 Japan (11.1%) / China (7.7%) / frozen pork stood at USD 90.5 million,
Malaysia (6.9%) soaring by 492.9 percent YoY.
4 Referencing an article from Prachachat
Food and Beverage 20,968 100.0 3.6 3.0 1.0-5.0 China (16.2%) / Japan (13.6%) / Turakij, titled “19 provinces in swine flu
Products USA (10.7%) scare, call for government intervention in
the face of a THB200 billion loss”.
ที�มูา: กระทรวงพาณิช่ย์ รวบรวมโดืยศ่นย์วิจัยกสิกรไทย หมูายเหติุ: *ตัวเลขปีระมาณการ (ธุันวาคม 2563) Available at [https://www.prachachat.net/
Source: Ministry of Commerce, with projections by KResearch Note: *Projected figures (December 2020) economy/news-566759]
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